Gold rises as CPI threat hardens Fed hike bets

NEW YORK, Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 (GoldSquawk) - COMEX gold futures rose as much as $44.50 an ounce on Monday after Bloomberg reported that Russell Investments said even a small upside surprise in Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index could lock in a December Federal Reserve rate hike, keeping the inflation report at the center of trading.

For bullion traders, that sets up a test in which gold is firm even as policy expectations stay restrictive. Reuters reported on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2026 that, after the stronger October jobs report, markets were pricing about a 78% chance of a quarter-point increase at the Fed's Dec. 8-9 meeting, and Reuters said on Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 that a hotter CPI reading would likely support the dollar and raise the odds of that move, which analyst Michael Waterer said would pressure gold.

Tuesday's CPI release is the immediate hurdle

COMEX gold settled at $4,115.00 an ounce on Monday, up $39.20, after ending Friday, Nov. 6, 2026 at $4,075.80, up $2.70, according to settlement data. Bloomberg reported that Russell Investments strategist BeiChen Lin said even a small CPI upside surprise could seal a December Fed move, linking that risk to persistent inflation and the Fed's limited patience with it.

The U.S. inflation release is scheduled for 13:30 UTC on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, according to the economic calendar. The Forex Factory consensus in the calendar showed headline CPI forecast to rise 0.3% month on month in October after 0.6% in September, while core CPI is seen at 0.2% after 0.3%.

Interactive Brokers said a Reuters poll covered 67 forecasters, with estimates for October core CPI ranging from 0.1% to 0.3% month on month and the cited estimate at 0.18%. iShook Finance also said Bloomberg economists expected headline CPI to rise 0.3% month on month and core CPI to increase 0.2%.

Hawkish policy bets meet steadier support

Reuters said gold rose more than 1% on Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 as softer oil prices eased inflation concerns, while investors waited for the inflation report and fresh Fed signals on policy. The same Reuters report quoted Waterer as saying a hotter CPI print would probably firm the dollar and increase the chance of a December hike, a combination that would weigh on bullion.

The broader Fed backdrop remains firm. Reuters said labor-market resilience after the October jobs data kept the central bank focused on inflation and pushed the policy debate toward a December increase. The U.S. 10-year real yield stood at 2.63% as of Thursday, Nov. 6, 2026, up 0.03 percentage point on the week, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data.

Official-sector buying is still part of the longer-term support picture. IMF International Reserves data showed 7 of 15 central banks added gold in their latest reported month, with Poland the biggest buyer this year at 122.7 tonnes. The same IMF data showed China's official holdings at 2,410 tonnes in September 2026 after 23 straight monthly increases, up 103.3 tonnes this year, while India's holdings were 881 tonnes, up 0.2 tonne this year.

Monday's range

Before the Bloomberg headline at 19:11 UTC, COMEX gold traded at $4,112.60 an ounce at 19:06 UTC, then touched $4,110.20 at 19:11 UTC before climbing to $4,157.10 by 20:24 UTC, according to 1-minute futures data.

COMEX gold was last at $4,149.50 at 22:00 UTC, with the U.S. CPI report due at 13:30 UTC on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026.