Oil traders watch UK North Sea licence ban plan

NEW YORK, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 (GoldSquawk) - ICE Brent crude last settled up 6 cents at $98.36 a barrel on Friday, Nov. 6, before the UK government said on Saturday it was moving to ban new North Sea oil and gas licensing, implementing a manifesto commitment that it says is needed because further licensing would not reverse the basin’s natural decline.

For traders, the measure matters less for immediate spot barrels than for the longer-run shape of UK upstream investment. The government says the bill would remove the North Sea Transition Authority’s power to grant new oil and gas licences, while introducing Transitional Energy Certificates, or TECs, to support existing fields and tiebacks and keep new exploration out of unlicensed areas.

Ban would shut off new licensing

The government’s Nov. 4 factsheet said it will implement its manifesto commitment not to issue new licences to explore new oil and gas fields, and that the proposed legislation would take away the regulator’s licensing power for new awards.

In that same document, the government said North Sea oil and gas production in 2025 was 75% below its peak years and argued that additional licensing would not reverse the basin’s natural decline. It also said the UK remains a net importer of oil and gas, while the North Sea still matters for jobs, growth and energy security.

That position had been signalled earlier. The government’s North Sea Future Plan published in November 2025 said a ban on new licences would end new exploration for offshore oil and gas fields and framed the policy as part of a broader transition to protect jobs and support new energy industries. In a written parliamentary answer on Sept. 8, ministers said they stood by the manifesto commitment not to issue new licences to explore new fields, while again describing the North Sea as a vital national asset for jobs, growth and energy security.

Existing assets stay at the centre

What changes for investors is the boundary between new exploration and the fields already in the system. The government says TECs are meant to support existing fields and tiebacks even as new exploration in unlicensed areas is blocked.

That matters in a market where consolidation was already building. Reuters reported on Oct. 30 that 11 industry analysts and bankers expected further dealmaking in Britain’s North Sea oil and gas sector amid high taxes and oil prices. Reuters quoted Cavendish’s James McCormack saying the North Sea was becoming an increasingly concentrated market for buyers with the balance sheet and decommissioning capacity to operate there.

Reuters also quoted Oliver Wyman’s Alexander Franke saying cost control would drive more activity, depending on the oil-price outlook, while MKI’s Tony White said scale still made sense because of tax credits and operational synergies. Greig Aitken of Wood Mackenzie told Reuters there had already been a lot of tax-driven consolidation.

Near-term prices still follow supply risk

The policy shift arrives with crude still reacting more directly to geopolitical supply risk than to UK licensing changes. Reuters said Brent jumped $3.67 to settle at $98.29 a barrel and WTI rose $2.40 to $90.52 on Nov. 5 after tanker attacks renewed concern about oil supplies from the Middle East war.

UK Maritime Trade Operations listed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz on Nov. 2 and Nov. 6, and another tanker attack in the Northern Arabian Gulf on Nov. 2, in data current as of Nov. 6. By the Nov. 6 close, Brent had settled at $98.36 a barrel and WTI at $90.88. The next scheduled macro marker for oil traders is U.S. CPI on Nov. 10.