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Market pulse

Release cards

as of 6 Nov 2026
US jobs report■ Average Hourly Earnings m/m: forecast 0.3%, previous 0.1%; Non-Farm Employment Change: forecast 65K, previous 29K; Unemployment Rate: forecast 4.2%, previous 4.2%Next big release: Fri 06 Nov, 13:30 GMT
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The week's market-moving US releases with the forecast and previous figure, and how WTI usually reacts (our own record). Below: what came out last time and how the price moved. Members can get a briefing 15 minutes before each one (account page).

Source: Calendar: Forex Factory. Results: our own headlines. Moves: NYMEX WTI futures 1-minute prices.

60.3▲ +1.5 on the day · 70% of the past year was lower · expected daily move ±3.39 $/bblCboe Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX): the move options price in, % a year
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Options traders expect WTI to move about ±3.8% on a typical day. That is about normal for the past year.

Source: Cboe OVX daily closes; price levels from WTI front-month futures (Yahoo Finance).

News sentiment

as of 6 Nov 2026
-14▼ 15 bullish, 34 bearish · 7 days before: +34Our oil headlines over the last 24 hours, from -100 (all bearish) to +100 (all bullish)
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The news flow has been mixed for oil. Each headline is scored by AI for what it means for the price; neutral ones are left out. Above: the strongest headlines of the last 24 hours.

Source: GoldSquawk: AI scores of our own published headlines.

What's driving oil

as of 6 Nov 2026
Middle East risk▲ Hormuz risk · Dollar · YieldsMost-cited driver in our 'why is oil moving' notes, last 7 days (12% of mentions)
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What our AI notes have pointed to as the reasons oil moved, counted over the week, against the weeks before.

Source: Our own 'Why is oil moving?' notes (written every 15-30 minutes from our headlines), last 5 weeks.

What moves WTI

as of 5 Nov 2026
±2.13%■ EIA gas storage ±0.31% · Fed statements ±0.09%Average WTI move 30 minutes after EIA crude stocks (last release)
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The size of the typical WTI move after each release, up or down (averages of the last 6). Bigger numbers mean the release usually matters more.

Source: Our own record: NYMEX WTI futures 1-minute prices 5 and 30 minutes after each release we published, since 28 Oct 2026.

Intermarket correlations

as of 6 Nov 2026
+0.86▲ US dollar (DXY) -0.01 · US 10-year yield +0.14 · Gold -0.29 · S&P 500 -0.43 · Copper -0.35WTI with Brent: correlation of daily moves over 3 months (the strongest link now)
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+1 means they move together, -1 opposite, 0 no link. A strong link that breaks down is often a sign that something new is driving WTI.

Source: GoldSquawk calculations from daily closes (Yahoo Finance).

Brent-WTI spread

as of 6 Nov 2026
+$7.67▲ Brent $96.81 · WTI $89.14 · 1-year average +$5.74Brent minus WTI, front-month futures, $/bbl
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A wider spread makes US crude cheaper abroad and tends to lift US exports; a narrow one does the opposite.

Source: ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI front-month futures, daily closes.

Geopolitical news heat

as of 6 Nov 2026
597▲ Middle East: 511 (+7% vs the week before) · urgent headlines: 40Geopolitical headlines on our feed in the last 7 days
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How much geopolitical news is breaking, by region. A rising count usually means more risk in the price.

Source: Our own count of the headlines we published, by the places they mention (a headline can count for more than one region).

Inventories and demand

US crude stocks

as of 30 Oct 2026
409.8M bbl▼ -0.87M bbl on the week · -4% vs 5-year averageUS commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the SPR
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Stocks are below the 5-year average for this time of year: a tighter market, which tends to support prices.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Petroleum Status Report, every Wednesday.

US gasoline stocks

as of 30 Oct 2026
209.0M bbl▼ -0.22M bbl on the week · -2% vs 5-year averageTotal US motor gasoline inventories
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Stocks are below the 5-year average for this time of year: a tighter market, which tends to support prices.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Petroleum Status Report, every Wednesday.

US distillate stocks

as of 30 Oct 2026
99.3M bbl▼ -3.56M bbl on the week · -13% vs 5-year averageUS distillate fuel oil inventories (diesel and heating oil)
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Stocks are below the 5-year average for this time of year: a tighter market, which tends to support prices.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Petroleum Status Report, every Wednesday.

Cushing stocks

as of 30 Oct 2026
27.2M bbl▲ +0.28M bbl on the week · +9% vs 5-year averageCrude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the WTI delivery hub
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Stocks are above the 5-year average for this time of year: supply is comfortable.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Petroleum Status Report, every Wednesday.

US natural gas storage

as of 30 Oct 2026
3,801 Bcf▲ +77 Bcf on the week · +1% vs 5-year averageWorking gas in underground storage, lower 48 states
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Stocks are above the 5-year average for this time of year: supply is comfortable.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, every Thursday.

Refinery runs

as of 30 Oct 2026
94.5%▲ +1.7 pts on the week · 5-year average 87.8%US refinery utilisation (share of operable capacity)
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Refiners are running hard, which pulls crude out of storage.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

US oil demand

as of 30 Oct 2026
21.19M b/d▲ +3.9% vs 5-year average · +0.14M b/d in 4 weeksTotal products supplied (implied demand), 4-week average
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US fuel demand is running above normal for the time of year.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA): products supplied, a stand-in for consumption.

+2.00M b/d■ Imports 6.14M b/d · exports 4.14M b/dNet crude imports (imports minus exports), 4-week average
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Strong US exports pull crude out of the US market and support WTI against Brent; rising imports do the opposite.

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), weekly crude imports and exports.

Positioning

Speculative positioning

as of 27 Oct 2026
74.3K▼ -15.0K on the week · Brent 220.1K · nat gas -255.2K · RBOB 71.5K · heating oil 9.7KNYMEX WTI speculative net position (contracts)
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Speculators' WTI position is near the bottom of its range of the past year. Big moves in positioning often come with big moves in price.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (WTI, natural gas, RBOB, heating oil) and ICE Futures Europe COT (Brent), every Friday.

31.1K▼ -5.1K on the week · producers 366.4K · swap dealers -469.4KWTI crude: hedge funds' (managed money) net position, contracts
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Hedge funds are the fast money: their buying and selling drives short-term moves. Producers and swap dealers mostly hedge, so they usually sit on the other side.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, disaggregated futures-only report, every Friday for the week to Tuesday.

Positioning heat map

as of 27 Oct 2026
0%▼ WTI crude near 3-year low · Natural gas near 3-year low · Silver near 3-year lowNatural gas (NYMEX): where speculators' position sits in its 3-year range
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Positions near a 3-year extreme are crowded: when news turns, they can unwind fast and exaggerate the move.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (non-commercial net) and ICE Futures Europe COT (Brent, managed money net), weekly.

Supply risk and central banks

Shipping attacks (UKMTO)

as of 5 Nov 2026
34■ Attacks: 26 (comparison once our records cover two months)Incidents reported to UKMTO in the last 30 days
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Attacks on ships in Hormuz, the Gulf and the Red Sea threaten oil supply routes and raise freight and insurance costs.

Source: UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) incident reports; the monthly history builds up from our own records.

Central bank tone

as of 5 Nov 2026
+19▲ balanced · 63 Fed remarksFed tone over the last 14 days, from -100 (very dovish) to +100 (very hawkish)
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Hawkish talk (higher rates for longer) tends to lift the dollar and weigh on gold; dovish talk does the opposite. Each central bank remark in our feed is scored by AI.

Source: GoldSquawk: AI scores of the central bank headlines we published; upcoming speakers from the calendar (Forex Factory).

Downloads and API

Every section's figures can be downloaded as a CSV file ("Download CSV" under each one), or read through our JSON API with a personal key from your account:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_KEY" https://goldsquawk.com/api/v1/data/gold
GET /api/v1/data                        feeds and sections
GET /api/v1/data/{feed}                 all sections of gold or oil
GET /api/v1/data/{feed}/{section}       one section (add .csv for CSV)
GET /api/v1/brief/{feed}                the latest weekly data brief

Or everything at once: all of this page's data in one Excel file.

Downloads and the API are for signed-in members. Please credit the original sources named under each section.

The numbers behind the gold price, updated automatically from official sources and our own records: this week's big releases, session preps, implied volatility and price levels, news sentiment, central bank tone, intermarket correlations, central bank buying, ETF holdings and flows, positioning (including by trader type), the China and India premiums, Swiss gold flows, Treasury auctions, how gold reacts to each release, what's driving it and how hot the geopolitical news is.

Figures are taken from the sources named under each chart and refreshed every hour; some are published weekly or monthly. For information only; not investment advice.